- Стадник, В.А. (orcid.org/0009-0009-5077-2993) (2024) Model of empirical research on social-psychological forecasting of the adaptability of Ukraine’s population to war-induced stress factors «Наукові інновації та передові технології» (Серія «Управління та адміністрування», Серія «Право», Серія «Економіка», Серія «Психологія», Серія «Педагогіка»), 11 (39). pp. 1880-1889. ISSN 2786-5274
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Stadnyk V.A. Model of empirical research on social-psychological forecasting-article-11.2024.pdf Download (1MB) |
Abstract
Based on the analysis of theoretical and practical scientific research, as well as applying the methodology of a systematic approach to the organization of socio-psychological forecasting of the adaptability of the population of Ukraine to the stressogenic factors of war, an attempt was made to build and characterize an empirical model for the study of the mentioned phenomenon. Within the framework of the study, the proposed model consisted of the following blocks: target, methodological, activity-practical, effective. The target block of the empirical model of socio-psychological forecasting of the adaptation of the population of Ukraine to stressogenic factors of war reflects its task: to determine the level of adaptation of the population to stressogenic factors of war; identify key factors affecting the psycho-emotional state of the population; develop recommendations for increasing resilience. The methodological block covers the provisions of socio-psychological theories of adaptation, models of social forecasting, postulates of the systemic approach (within which adaptation was viewed as a complex socio-psychological phenomenon that includes various aspects: individual, group, social), the principles of an interdisciplinary approach. The actively practical block reflects the actual logic of performing empirical actions to achieve the announced tasks and the set of diagnostic methods that make up the tools of scientific intelligence.The procedural organization of the study included the following stages: a preparatory stage, which included the formulation of the main research questions, the development of data collection tools, and the refinement of theoretical and methodological principles; a field stage of the study, which included direct questionnaires, focus groups, and interviews with participants; an analytical stage, during which the collected data were interpreted and summarized based on the use of statistical and qualitative methods to interpret the results; a prognostic stage of the study involved the definition of strategies for increasing the resilience and adaptation of the population to war conditions; the formation of forecasts based on the collected data and the analysis of trends; the development of practical recommendations for social services and organizations engaged in supporting the population. The resulting block of the model consists of current data on the level of resilience and adaptation of the population to war conditions, a list of identified main stress factors (economic, social, psychological) that affect the state of adaptation to war. It is summarized that modeling in the field of socio-psychological forecasting is a critically important tool that helps to understand and influence the adaptation of the population to the stressors of war, contributing to the creation of more effective and targeted support strategies and interventions.
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