Chapter IV. Forecasting economic crises using AI: from simulations to real-world implementation

- Герасименко, Дмитро (orcid.org/0009-0002-0791-7359) (2026) Chapter IV. Forecasting economic crises using AI: from simulations to real-world implementation Project Report. ФОП Ямчинський О.В., м. Київ, Україна.

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Abstract

Economic crises are an integral part of the global economy, causing significant social and economic upheaval. Traditional forecasting methods often prove insufficiently accurate or timely to predict such complex events. In this context, artificial intelligence (AI) offers new opportunities for developing early warning systems capable of analyzing vast amounts of data in real time and identifying complex patterns that may signal an impending crisis. The application of machine learning algorithms enables the processing of both structured economic data and unstructured information from news sources, social media, and other alternative sources, thereby significantly broadening the scope of analysis. This paper examines the potential of AI in developing simulation models of economic crises, which allow for the assessment of various development scenarios and the testing of the effectiveness of different algorithmic interventions. It investigates existing AI-based early warning systems and analyzes practical examples of their implementation across various countries and sectors. Particular attention is paid to a critical assessment of the effectiveness and limitations of using AI to forecast economic crises, including issues regarding data quality, model interpretability, and potential risks to financial stability. The paper emphasizes the importance of combining AI capabilities with the expertise of economists to enhance forecasting accuracy and reliability-a key factor in ensuring economic stability and enabling timely responses to crisis phenomena.

Item Type:	Monograph (Project Report)
Additional Information:	Герасименко Д. Розділ IV. Прогнозування економічних криз за допомогою ШІ: від симуляцій до реального впровадження : монографія / [авт. колектив]; за ред. Осадчого Вячеслава та Пінчук Ольги. – Київ: ФОП Ямчинський О.В. 2026. – С. 46-54. ISBN 978-617-8877-52-1. Herasymenko D. Chapter IV. Forecasting economic crises using AI: from simulations to real-world implementation / Artificial Intelligence in Economics : Monograph / [Collective of authors]; edited by Osadchyi Viacheslav and Pinchuk Olha – Kyiv : Sole Proprietor Yamchynskyi O.V., 2026. – p. 46-54. ISBN 978-617-8877-52-1
Keywords:	artificial intelligence, economic crises, forecasting, simulation, early warning, big data, machine learning, algorithmic interventions, real-world implementation, financial stability
Subjects:	Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 00 Prolegomena. Fundamentals of knowledge and culture. Propaedeutics > 004 Computer science and technology. Computing. Data processing > 004.9 Application-oriented computer-based techniques Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 3 Social Sciences > 33 Economics. Economic science
Divisions:	Institute for Digitalisation of Education > Generic resouse
Depositing User:	д.пед.н. Анна Яцишин
Date Deposited:	01 Nov 2026 21:52
Last Modified:	01 Nov 2026 21:52
URI:	https://lib.iitta.gov.ua/id/eprint/750333

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