Societal paradigm of social forecasting: Analytical Operationalization of the Psychological Framework of Social Forecasting

- Суший, О.В. (orcid.org/0000-0002-4364-7571) (2025) Societal paradigm of social forecasting: Analytical Operationalization of the Psychological Framework of Social Forecasting Problems of Political Psychology, 18 (32). ISSN 2411-1449

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Abstract

The relevance of the research is determined by the methodological crisis in social forecasting, particularly the disciplinary limitations of the social sciences, which hinder the possibility of adequately predicting the complex dynamics of the contemporary world. The response to this challenge is the development of an integral, transdisciplinary approach to studying and forecasting complex social phenomena. The purpose of the research is the theoretical and methodological substantiation of an innovative transdisciplinary paradigm of social forecasting, which constitutes a programmatic complex for the analytical operationalization of its psychological framework. Methodology and scientific approaches. The methodological framework of the study is an integrative system that unites three key levels: the theoretical-methodological level – a metatheoretical and integrative approach that ensures interdisciplinarity; the analytical level – systemic analysis, psychosocial diagnostics, and prognostic analytics, which together form the analytical tools of the study; the interpretative level – interpretive methodology, which provides deep understanding of social dynamics and its meaning structures. Results. A societal paradigm of social forecasting has been developed that overcomes disciplinary fragmentation and enables structural-dynamic analysis and scenario-based forecasting of complex social situations. This is achieved through the integration of macro-level diagnostics of systemic dysfunctions with micro-level analysis of mass consciousness states. Additionally, a conceptual program for the analytical operationalization of the psychological framework of social forecasting has been formulated, allowing the transition from fragmented description of social processes to a holistic understanding of societal dynamics – across past, present, and future dimensions. The practical significance of the results. The innovativeness and heuristic value of the proposed framework derive from its conceptual, methodological, and analytical-prognostic originality. It sets a horizon of strategic perspectives and analytical-methodological opportunities for psychological science within the transdisciplinary field of futures studies.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	societal paradigm, societal dynamics, social forecasting, predictive modelling, analytical operationalization, psychological framework, social psychology, social situation, interdisciplinarity
Subjects:	Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 1 Philosophy. Psychology Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 3 Social Sciences > 303 Methods of the social sciences Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 3 Social Sciences > 304 Social questions. Social practice. Cultural practice. Way of life (Lebensweise) Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 3 Social Sciences > 314/316 Society
Divisions:	The Institute of Social and Political Psychology > Department of Methodology for Psychosocial and Political Psychology Research
Depositing User:	Доктор О.В. Суший
Date Deposited:	02 Jan 2026 18:43
Last Modified:	02 Jan 2026 18:43
URI:	https://lib.iitta.gov.ua/id/eprint/748149

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