Empirical substantiation of the method of forecasting probable scenarios of economic behaviour of citizens

- Малхазов, Олександр Ромуальдович (orcid.org/0000-0001-7312-5830) (2024) Empirical substantiation of the method of forecasting probable scenarios of economic behaviour of citizens Габітус (66). pp. 315-319. ISSN 2663-5208

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Abstract

The article is focused on the problem of forecasting economic behaviour, namely, methodological approaches to developing forecasting models. The author’s approach to forecasting, based on the analysis of the correlation-factor-cluster model of economic behaviour is proposed. The study is based on the hypothesis that the dominance of a particular type of practice in the economic behaviour of citizens determines the vector and dynamics of socio-economic changes in the country. In the context of the ongoing russian-Ukrainian war, economic behaviour is structured by the predominance of survival or development practices. The prospects of the proposed method of calculating the forecast are proved by analysing a fragment of the model built on the array of subjective scaling data. The respondents were asked to evaluate on a 5-point scale the extent to which they have specific economic ideas, attitudes, and ways of acting. The results were processed using the statistical software R and Excel. The forecasting process involved the following sequence of procedures: calculation of statistical characteristics of variables; determination of linear and graded trend lines for each variable; determination of the legitimacy of extending the data to the general population of 2000 respondents; development and analysis of a correlation-factor-cluster model of economic behaviour. Additional verification of the proposed method was based on the idea of a binomial probability distribution. Based on the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the elements of supercluster C43 (a fragment of the correlation-factor-cluster model), it is concluded that the perceptions and practices of students' economic behaviour meet the criteria of rationality and agency. Based on the results of the analysis of the model fragment, a conclusion is made about the prospects of the proposed method of calculating the forecast.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	economic behaviour, forecast calculation, method, trend line, correlation-factor-cluster model
Subjects:	Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 1 Philosophy. Psychology Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 3 Social Sciences > 303 Methods of the social sciences Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 3 Social Sciences > 314/316 Society > 316 Соціологія Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 3 Social Sciences > 33 Economics. Economic science
Divisions:	The Institute of Social and Political Psychology > Department of Methodology for Psychosocial and Political Psychology Research
Depositing User:	гнс О.Р. Малхазов
Date Deposited:	08 Apr 2025 11:37
Last Modified:	08 Apr 2025 11:37
URI:	https://lib.iitta.gov.ua/id/eprint/745057

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