A model for forecasting the dynamics of value preferences in a crisis society

- Малхазов, Олександр Ромуальдович (orcid.org/0000-0001-7312-5830) (2022) A model for forecasting the dynamics of value preferences in a crisis society Журнал сучасної психології, 4 (27). pp. 48-55. ISSN 2310-4368

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Abstract

In the article, a methodology for forecasting the dynamics of value preferences in a crisis society is substantiated. Social-psychological characteristics of the crisis society that have an impact on the dynamics of values changes are defined. When building prognostic models of value changes, it is suggested to take into account: the characteristics of the unfolding of the crisis and its current stage, the scale and depth of the crisis situation. It is determined that the most relevant for this case is the idea of using the middle-range theory of R. Merton as a forecasting instrument. Value preferences are considered as generalized value priorities that determine the choice of life strategies, set guidelines, standards, and criteria for evaluating goals and ways to achieve them. The hypothesis regarding the prospects of forecasting the dynamics of value preferences in a crisis society based on the determination of the probability of transition from values (and hence the survival strategy, which is actualized at the first stage of the crisis) to values and development strategy, is substantiated. A theoretical model for forecasting the dynamics of value preferences, built according to the logic of the unfolding of the crisis, is presented. A criterion model of value priorities is proposed, on the basis of which the empirical research toolkit is constructed. The model contains 4 groups of indicators (features of response to a crisis situation; features of goal setting; potential for the realization of set goals; features of social practices and value priorities). Indicators are defined separately for each of the value strategies (survival and development). At the stage of developing the tools for collecting primary data, it is suggested to use the brainstorming method, the Delphi method, methods of correlation, regression, factor, and cluster analysis. Methods of psychosemantics (in particular, evaluation scaling), questionnaires, and the method of expert evaluations are defined as the most relevant to the tasks of empirical research.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	value preferences, forecasting methodology, middle-range theories, crisis society, criterion model, theoretical model, survival values, development values
Subjects:	Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 1 Philosophy. Psychology Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 3 Social Sciences > 314/316 Society
Divisions:	The Institute of Social and Political Psychology > Laboratory for Methodology of Psychosocial and Political Psychological Research
Depositing User:	гнс О.Р. Малхазов
Date Deposited:	06 Apr 2023 12:39
Last Modified:	06 Apr 2023 12:39
URI:	https://lib.iitta.gov.ua/id/eprint/734756

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