Between Scylla of Capitulation and Charybdis of Eternal War: Scenario Modelling of Ukraine's Post-War Development

- Суший, О.В. (orcid.org/0000-0002-4364-7571) (2026) Between Scylla of Capitulation and Charybdis of Eternal War: Scenario Modelling of Ukraine's Post-War Development Political Studies, 1 (11). pp. 91-114. ISSN 2786-4782

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Abstract

Ukraine has found itself at the epicenter of not only a military confrontation but also a complex geopolitical game, where each potential scenario for ending the war carries profound implications for the nation`s future. The paper examines possible scenarios for ending the war and models trajectories of Ukraine`s post-war development within the context of the complex societal dynamics of the past, present, and future. The conceptual foundation of the study lies in the societal paradigm, while the methodological framework is based on an integral matrix of societal forecasting, which enables analytical operationalization of complex societal dynamics and the social situation in both systemic ("top-down") and psychosocial ("bottom-up") dimensions. The focus is placed not only on political, military, or economic factors but primarily on the deeper processes of transformation within the societal structure, mass consciousness, value system, and collective identity. A spectrum of potential outcomes is considered – from total victory and "frozen conflict" to enforced peace and societal transformation – identifying the risks and opportunities inherent in each. Particular attention is paid to the psychological and social consequences of the ongoing confrontation. The study demonstrates how war fatigue, burdened by a deterministic cycle of crises and collective traumas, may affect the Ukrainian society`s capacity for reconstruction and consolidation. It also explores the mechanisms through which different peace settlement scenarios can either facilitate or hinder the overcoming of war`s aftermath. The paper offers not only an analytical description of possible scenarios but also practical recommendations for developing a flexible and adaptive strategy for post-war recovery. Its goal is to outline potential contours of Ukraine`s "post-war future" and stimulate an expert discussion on the societal preconditions of sustainable peace in an era of hybrid challenges and profound collective transformations. It also seeks to contribute to the broader discourse on Ukraine`s future by proposing a scientifically grounded approach to scenario modelling as a tool not only for forecasting but also for the societal self-definition of a nation striving to balance security, justice, and recovery under conditions of uncertainty.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	societal paradigm, societal dynamics, social forecasting, predictive modeling, scenarios, post-war reconstruction, psychology in social forecasting, social situation, interdisciplinarity, methodology
Subjects:	Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 3 Social Sciences > 303 Methods of the social sciences Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 3 Social Sciences > 314/316 Society Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 3 Social Sciences > 32 Politics Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 3 Social Sciences > 35 Public administration. Government. Military affairs
Divisions:	The Institute of Social and Political Psychology > Department of Mass and Community Psychology
Depositing User:	Доктор О.В. Суший
Date Deposited:	10 Apr 2026 12:03
Last Modified:	10 Apr 2026 12:03
URI:	https://lib.iitta.gov.ua/id/eprint/748874

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