Прогнозирование тенденций развития профессионально-технического образования методами ФОРСАЙТ

- Закатнов, Д.О. (2013) Прогнозирование тенденций развития профессионально-технического образования методами ФОРСАЙТ Модернізація професійної освіти і навчання: проблеми, пошуки і перспективи, 1 (3). pp. 27-38. ISSN 978-966-644-337-6

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Abstract

In article the perspective method of forecasting of development of various social and economic systems – a method Forsyte who can be applied and to forecasting of prospects of development of system of vocational training is considered. The given method of forecasting is focused on definition of possible variants of development of the future, and a basis for an estimation of variants of the future are expert estimations. Use of a method of Forsyte allows to estimate, first of all, prospects of development of certain system, future social and economic effect, to predict possible technological and social and economic advantages which can be reached at an investment of certain means etc. The technology of forecasting with use of the given method assumes a purpose choice (technological, social and economic or other orientation of the forecast); Definition of vision of the future of certain social and economic system (region, branch, an education sphere etc.), definition of a circle of objects (the enterprises, establishments, etc.) which can make a basis of strategic development; the forecast of prospects of development of the chosen systems; the forecast of results of fundamental scientific researches in the chosen spheres; forecasting of development of new technologies; forecasting of an exit for the market of essentially new kinds of production or services etc.

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