Modelling of Trade Relations between EU Countries by the Method of Minimum Spanning Trees Using Different Measures of Similarity

- Danylchuk, H., Ivanylova, Oksana, Kybalnyk, Liubov, Kovtun, Oksana, Melnyk, Tatiana, Serdiuk, Olexandr and Zaselskiy, Vladimir I. (2020) Modelling of Trade Relations between EU Countries by the Method of Minimum Spanning Trees Using Different Measures of Similarity The Special Edition of International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling & Management of Emergent Economy (M3E2-MLPEED 2020) (2713). ISSN 1613-0073

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Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of changes in relations between the countries of the European Union based on modeling and analysis of the structure of trade relations between countries. The article analyzes the dynamics of exports and imports of goods and services between the countries of the European Union on the basis of data taken for the period from 2006 to 2019. The study is based on one of the methods of cluster analysis, namely – the method of constructing minimal spanning trees. For the analysis the method of visualization of links is defined and the choice of the corresponding graphic representation is substantiated: the display of links using the dendrograms which carry more information in comparison with display of the minimum spanning trees in the form of a planar graph is chosen. Four different methods were used to construct the minimum spanning trees on the basis of which the visualization of links is performed: the Single link method, the averaged link method, the complete links method, and the Ward method. Based on the analysis of the results obtained using each of the methods, the best of them is selected, which is then used throughout the study. As a result of the study, suggests were made about the criteria by which clusters are formed within the European market. Such criteria are both the geographical neighborhood, which means mostly similar climatic conditions, and the common strategy of economic development of the country and the common strategy of behavior in the world market. In addition, a number of countries have been identified that are gradually moving to the use of their own economic strategies, as well as a number of countries seeking to align strategies of behavior in the world market. The influence of such factors as joining the integration union of new member states and global financial crises on the structure of trade relations is substantiated. Changes in the structure of relations between EU countries due to the influence of these factors are simulated. The study is of an applied nature and can be used in the future as a methodological basis for developing effective mechanisms for reformatting trade relations between countries in the context of geoeconomic transformations and global financial crises.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Cluster analysis, minimum spanning tree, cluster, dendrogram, European Union, international trade, import, export
Subjects: Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 00 Prolegomena. Fundamentals of knowledge and culture. Propaedeutics > 004 Computer science and technology. Computing. Data processing > 004.9 ІКТ ( Application-oriented computer-based techniques ) > 004.94 Simulation
Science and knowledge. Organization. Computer science. Information. Documentation. Librarianship. Institutions. Publications > 6 Applied Sciences. Medicine. Technology > 65 Communication and transport industries. Accountancy. Business management. Public relations
Divisions: State institution of higher education «University of educational management» > Educational and scientific institute of management and psychology > Department of Public Administration and Project Management
Depositing User: ОпКомНаб T.І. Коваленко
Date Deposited: 18 Feb 2021 07:44
Last Modified: 24 Sep 2021 12:58
URI: http://lib.iitta.gov.ua/id/eprint/723509

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